India is the world's third-largest hydrogen consumer, with demand of approximately 9 MT/year concentrated in three sectors: petroleum refining (3.5 MT for hydrotreating and hydrocracking), fertilisers (6 MT for ammonia and urea synthesis — some overlap with refinery hydrogen), and industrial chemicals (methanol, aniline, cyclohexane synthesis). This entire demand base is currently served by unabated steam methane reforming (SMR) or naphtha reforming — producing 10–12 kg CO₂ per kg H₂ in lifecycle terms.
India's National Hydrogen Mission targets 5 MT/year of green hydrogen production by 2030 — approximately half of current total hydrogen demand. Blue hydrogen from SMR + CCS provides the most cost-effective near-term pathway to decarbonise existing demand while green hydrogen capacity develops. Blue hydrogen costs USD 1.5–2.5/kg in India vs. USD 4–7/kg for green hydrogen today — a cost differential that makes blue hydrogen an essential bridge until 2030 and potentially beyond.
India's annual hydrogen demand — world's 3rd largest, all from unabated SMR today
National Hydrogen Mission 2030 target for green H₂ — blue H₂ bridges the gap
Blue H₂ cost per kg from SMR+CCS vs. $4–7/kg for green H₂ in India today
Indian refineries consuming 3.5 MT/yr of unabated SMR hydrogen — all CCS retrofit candidates
Post-combustion CCS on SMR flue gas is one of two capture routes for refinery and fertiliser hydrogen plants: the SMR process flue gas (from combustion of fuel to heat the reformer tubes) typically contains 14–18% CO₂ and is captured with post-combustion amine scrubbing; the process gas from the reformer (the high-pressure CO₂ stream from the PSA reject) is already at elevated pressure and high concentration — amenable to pre-combustion physical solvent capture. The combination of both streams achieves 85–90% overall capture rate.
Shell's Quest CCS project in Alberta, Canada — capturing CO₂ from steam methane reforming at an oil sands hydrogen plant — is the primary global reference for refinery SMR CCS. Quest's 1.2 MT/year capture rate, demonstrated 80% overall capture efficiency, and 10-year operational track record provide the performance benchmark NCM uses for Indian refinery feasibility assessments.
India's blue hydrogen from SMR + CCS can be certified under CertifHy (Europe's green hydrogen certification scheme) if the lifecycle carbon intensity is below 36.4 g CO₂/MJ — achievable with 85%+ capture efficiency. CertifHy-certified blue hydrogen can access the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) compliance markets for hydrogen in transport and industry — creating a premium European export market for Indian blue hydrogen supplied via ammonia or liquid hydrogen shipping.
Japan's bilateral Article 6.2 agreement with India specifically includes low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia as eligible clean energy trade commodities. NCM is structuring the first India-Japan blue hydrogen supply agreement — a pipeline concept from India's proposed Paradip or Dhamra hydrogen hub on the Odisha coast to Japanese shipping offtakers, generating both product revenue and Article 6 carbon credits for the Government of India.
NCM's hydrogen sector advisory integrates capture technology assessment (SMR flue gas PCC vs. PSA pre-combustion vs. ATR + CCS), storage pathway identification, blue hydrogen certification (CertifHy, ISCC+, India Hydrogen Mission standard), and offtake market development for domestic use (fertilisers, refineries) and export (Japan, South Korea, EU via ammonia). The certification strategy is critical — different export markets accept different lifecycle accounting methodologies, and the certificate design determines market access.
NCM also supports green hydrogen developers in understanding how blue hydrogen fits their long-term strategy. Rather than treating blue and green hydrogen as competitors, NCM designs hydrogen supply portfolios that use blue hydrogen for near-term demand while scaling green hydrogen capacity — creating a managed transition that optimises total lifecycle emissions and commercial returns.
Whether you are a government body seeking policy advice, an industrial company facing CBAM exposure, or an investor seeking CCUS project opportunities — our team is ready to engage.